What Is To Be Done?
What is to be done in Iraq? The majority of the answers that I read rest on hope and little else. People speak of setting up a civilian government, but then promptly assign it a very short life. The utility of that escapes me.
Most likely it is impossible to imagine a more enduring fix at this moment, because of the large number of rambunctious characters in and around Iraq. We have the Shia, the Sunni, and the Kurds inside Iraq, plus the returned exiles and the various elements from countries other than Iraq who have come there to pursue their own interests, and I include among those the Al-Quedas and Bremer Inc. And then, waiting at Iraq's borders, are the Turks and also, though not with quite as much hunger, the Iranians. And far into the future these forces figure to still be there, stronger, more resolute, and as eager as ever to grab what they consider to be their rightful slice of the pie, once the U.S. military, having finally conceded that it hasn't won very many hearts and minds, finishes retreating inside its fortifications and around the wellheads and the pipelines -- or leaves.
A total U.S. withdrawal doesn't seem likely any time soon, because the oil was always the main reason the Bushies went in there, with the WMD, fears of terrorists, the atrocities of Saddam Hussein, and the plight of the Iraqi people being only straw men. Continuing to maintain that smokescreen must be the most comfortable way, though it's still strange to me to see how people these days usually talk about Iraq as if those huge pools of petroleum under its sands have suddenly volatized into nothing.
But, in addition to the oil, all those other groups in and around Iraq have many other axes to grind as well, and the fact that they're not our axes doesn't make them any the less real or less urgent. And so my very unpopular notion (except in Iraq, if a poll discussed by Juan Cole on 29 April is any indication) is that it would be best if Bush got out of the way NOW.
I can't see anybody cutting off the oil afterward. Money impresses even ayatollahs, and meanwhile no one knows how much more anarchy than is present now would ensue. Events have their surprises, and it's just as likely that things, prompted by exhaustion and relief, will quiet down.
In any case it looks to me like another of those situations in which early is better than late. Otherwise I expect that the resentments to which the U.S. occupation contributes will keep building, and the quagmire will deepen with each passing month and year. Quagmires have a way of doing that, you know, when they're well-watered by bullets and bombs. And let's remember what they say about the length of time that guests should stay, and Bush isn't even there by invitation.
Most likely it is impossible to imagine a more enduring fix at this moment, because of the large number of rambunctious characters in and around Iraq. We have the Shia, the Sunni, and the Kurds inside Iraq, plus the returned exiles and the various elements from countries other than Iraq who have come there to pursue their own interests, and I include among those the Al-Quedas and Bremer Inc. And then, waiting at Iraq's borders, are the Turks and also, though not with quite as much hunger, the Iranians. And far into the future these forces figure to still be there, stronger, more resolute, and as eager as ever to grab what they consider to be their rightful slice of the pie, once the U.S. military, having finally conceded that it hasn't won very many hearts and minds, finishes retreating inside its fortifications and around the wellheads and the pipelines -- or leaves.
A total U.S. withdrawal doesn't seem likely any time soon, because the oil was always the main reason the Bushies went in there, with the WMD, fears of terrorists, the atrocities of Saddam Hussein, and the plight of the Iraqi people being only straw men. Continuing to maintain that smokescreen must be the most comfortable way, though it's still strange to me to see how people these days usually talk about Iraq as if those huge pools of petroleum under its sands have suddenly volatized into nothing.
But, in addition to the oil, all those other groups in and around Iraq have many other axes to grind as well, and the fact that they're not our axes doesn't make them any the less real or less urgent. And so my very unpopular notion (except in Iraq, if a poll discussed by Juan Cole on 29 April is any indication) is that it would be best if Bush got out of the way NOW.
I can't see anybody cutting off the oil afterward. Money impresses even ayatollahs, and meanwhile no one knows how much more anarchy than is present now would ensue. Events have their surprises, and it's just as likely that things, prompted by exhaustion and relief, will quiet down.
In any case it looks to me like another of those situations in which early is better than late. Otherwise I expect that the resentments to which the U.S. occupation contributes will keep building, and the quagmire will deepen with each passing month and year. Quagmires have a way of doing that, you know, when they're well-watered by bullets and bombs. And let's remember what they say about the length of time that guests should stay, and Bush isn't even there by invitation.
posted by Carl (aka Sofarsogoo) | 6:27 AM
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